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SOUNDING OFF:

These days, there is a tremendous amount of good economic news besides a gently rising stock market, but you are going to have to work hard each week to find it.

Near the end of March, the Mortgage Bankers Assn. reported increases in the volume of mortgage-loan applications over the past year (“Strong Refinance Activity Continues Unabated,” April 1).

And why not? Loan rates are down so low that banks are practically paying us to take their money.

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Recently, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages has decreased to 4.61% from 4.63%, and the average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.45% from 4.48%.

“Points,” the amount of money you have to pay to get a loan, are decreasing, too.

But wait, there’s more! As you may have already figured out, those huge numbers of non-refinancing mortgage contracts mean that people are once again buying homes.

The housing rebound, in fact, is staggering. The National Assn. of Realtors reported last week that single-family home sales increased in February by about 5% nationally. New home sales also increased about 5% nationally last month.

Other data released by the Commerce Department last week showed that “orders for manufactured goods rose last month for the first time since July.”

Specifically, “orders for manufactured durable goods — items such as autos, furniture and appliances designed to last three years or more — rose a seasonally adjusted 3.4% last month to $165.6 billion, the first monthly gain since July.”

All of this should have made top headlines in print, on the air, on the Internet, but it did not.

To make matters worse, a few media outlets took the good news and tried their best to make sure you knew it was depressing.

Online, the Wall Street Journal reported the good news that retail sales rose in February, particularly in automobile sales, with the inspiring headline, “U.S. retail sales stayed soft in February.”

Yes, you read it correctly: “soft.” At a time when any retail establishment is thrilled for any percentage increase, all the Wet Blanket Journal could muster was “soft.”

All of this should be a caution to the cities of Newport Beach and Costa Mesa, who may be tempted to initiate layoffs to help weather the recession, particularly if those layoffs involve members of the police or fire departments.

Firefighters and police cost a lot of money to train, and the experienced ones are particularly valuable. It would be a shame to let some of them go only to have the recession end soon and the tax base restored, leaving either city in the uncomfortable position of having to pay to train.


STEVE SMITH is a resident of Costa Mesa.

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