Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 17

Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Glantz-Culver. Last week 11-5, overall 159-81 (.663); against spread 8-8, overall 104-136 (.433). See Farmer’s video picks online at our Fabulous Forum blog at latimes/sports:

Indianapolis at Buffalo

Records: 14-1; 5-10

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 704

Line: Bills by 8.5. Over/Under: 40

Now that the Colts have lost, there’s no reason to play Peyton Manning more than a series. The defensive stalwarts can take a breather too. Bills 21, Colts 17.

Jacksonville at Cleveland

Records: 7-8; 4-11

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 705

Line: Browns by 1.5. Over/Under: 37.5

Disappointing finish for Jaguars team that showed promise. At least Maurice Jones-Drew has a chance to claim touchdown title (16, one behind Vikings’ Adrian Peterson). Jaguars 24, Browns 17.

New England at Houston

Records: 10-5; 8-7

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 706

Line: Texans by 8. Over/Under: 46

The Texans have a faint playoff pulse, but it’s not as if the Patriots are going to roll over for them. Tom Brady will face a lot of blitzes, but few can handle that like Brady. Patriots 24, Texans 23.

Pittsburgh at Miami

Records: 8-7; 7-8

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 707

Line: Steelers by 3. Over/Under: 45.5

Protecting Ben Roethlisberger is the key. If the Steelers can do that, Big Ben should be able to find open receivers against a secondary that can be vulnerable. Steelers 21, Dolphins 20.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay

Records: 8-7; 3-12

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 708

Line: Falcons by 2.5. Over/Under: 41.5

The Falcons can’t make the playoffs, but they have some incentive: a chance for franchise’s first back-to-back winning seasons. Matt Ryan seems back in the flow. Falcons 24, Buccaneers 20.

New Orleans at Carolina

Records: 13-2; 7-8

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 709

Line: Off board.

Saints have lost two in a row and could use some momentum heading into the playoffs. But it’s probably smarter to rest their stars, especially against peaking Carolina. Panthers 27, Saints 23.

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota

Records: 8-7; 11-4

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 710

Line: Vikings by 9. Over/Under: 47.5

The Giants showed last week that their tank is on E. If they can’t rally for their final game at their own stadium, they aren’t likely to be playing at a high level in this one. Vikings 34, Giants 13.

San Francisco at St. Louis

Records: 7-8; 1-14

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 711

Line: 49ers by 7. Over/Under: 40.5

The last time these teams faced each other, the 49ers scored three defensive touchdowns in a 35-0 rout. This one will be closer, but will anyone notice? 49ers 21, Rams 17.

Chicago at Detroit

Records: 6-9; 2-13

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 712

Line: Bears by 3. Over/Under: 45

Matt Forte rushed for 121 yards the first time these teams played. This time, Jay Cutler has a chance to string consecutive strong outings and give Bears fans hope for next year. Bears 30, Lions 17.

Philadelphia at Dallas

Records: 11-4; 10-5

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 713

Line: Cowboys by 3. Over/Under: 47.5

The NFC East is up for grabs and the Cowboys have quieted talk about December disasters. Still, the Eagles eke out a win, utilizing impressive arsenal of offensive playmakers. Eagles 28, Cowboys 27.

Washington at San Diego

Records: 4-11; 12-3

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 714

Line: Chargers by 4. Over/Under: 39.5

If the Chargers play their starters, and don’t want to coast into the postseason, they should be able to handle a Redskins team that’s had big defensive breakdowns of late. Chargers 27, Redskins 13.

Green Bay at Arizona

Records: 10-5; 10-5

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 715

Line: Cardinals by 3.5. Over/Under: 44

Because these teams could meet in the first round, neither is going to show too much. There’s a possibility the Cardinals can improve their seeding, though, and get a bye. Cardinals 28, Packers 20.

Kansas City at Denver

Records: 3-12; 8-7

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 716

Line: Broncos by 13. Over/Under: 38

The Chiefs have shown flashes of promise, but they’re not so improved that they’re going to beat, on the road, a team that pounded them, 44-13, earlier this season. Broncos 24, Chiefs 14.

Baltimore at Oakland

Records: 8-7; 5-10

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 717

Line: Ravens by 10.5. Over/Under: 38

The upset-capable Raiders knocked Tampa Bay out of the postseason picture in last season’s “meaningless” finale. Rest assured, the Ravens will be on their toes. Ravens 27, Raiders 13.

Tennessee at Seattle

Records: 7-8; 5-10

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 718

Line: Titans by 4. Over/Under: 44

The Titans will feed Chris Johnson, who needs 234 yards to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record (2,105) and 75 to top Marshall Faulk’s all-purpose mark (2,429). Titans 24, Seahawks 13.

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets

Records: 10-5; 8-7

When: Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Jets by 10. Over/Under: 35

Who could have guessed the Jets would control their destiny while the Giants would be left out in the cold? The Bengals have no incentive to put their best players at risk. Jets 24, Bengals 10.