Starting to Worry

VERO BEACH, Fla. -- He’s the first person you want to see upon your arrival at Dodgertown.

He’s the first person everyone wants to see upon the arrival of the Dodgers’ season.

He’s the first person in every Dodgers prediction, every Dodgers hype, every Dodgers hope.

But where is he?

It’s the middle of a spring training game and he’s not on the field. He’s not in the bullpen. He’s not on some back mound.

A vast search ends in the middle of an otherwise empty clubhouse, where Jason Schmidt sits with a soft smile and a shaking head.

So, how’s your shoulder?

“That’s a trick question,” he says.

That, I think, is a scary answer.

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Jason Schmidt is not going to be ready for opening day.

“No, he’s not,” says Dodgers Manager Joe Torre.

Jason Schmidt might not be at full speed until the middle of the summer.

“Man, I hope it’s before then,” he says.

Contrary to what many fans believed after a slew of glowing rehabilitation reports, Jason Schmidt currently cannot be counted on as part of the Dodgers’ rotation.

Which could make the Dodgers’ season a trick question.

Can a team survive in the pitching-rich National League West with only two proven starting pitchers? Outside of Brad Penny and Derek Lowe, are there really any certainties?

Chad Billingsley is a potential superstar, but does that happen this soon, after 36 career starts?

Hiroki Kuroda is a plow horse, but he’s also 33 with an earned-run average that rose two full points last summer in Japan.

Then there’s the fifth starter spot, up for grabs but currently occupied by Esteban Loaiza, whose 8.34 ERA as a Dodger last year makes it a very scary spot indeed.

Torre says he is happy with the first four starters, even without Schmidt.

“I think it’s a pretty solid group; not too many clubs have four like that,” he says.

But championship clubs do.

And Torre is worried about something else.

“You know,” he says, “we don’t have any left-handers in there.”

Unless they jam Hong-Chih Kuo and his 7.42 ERA into the rotation, they could be a team without a lefty starter, which is a team unfamiliar to Torre and recent World Series championships.

In his 12 seasons as manager of the New York Yankees, Torre’s teams averaged 56 starts by left-handers.

Since the Dodgers last won a playoff series in 1988, the 19 World Series championship teams have averaged 48 starts by left-handers.

It’s especially important in the West, where opposing left-handed hitters include San Diego’s Adrian Gonzalez and Jim Edmonds, Colorado’s Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe, and Arizona’s Chad Tracy.

“Having a left-handed starter prevents teams from stacking lineups against you,” Torre says.

The lack of left-handers means Torre will have to carry two left-handers in the bullpen.

It also could mean that the Dodgers finally will have to do what they futilely tried to do this winter -- trade for a left-handed starter.

Heck, if Schmidt doesn’t return they might have to trade for any starter, something they refused to do this winter because the cost in prospects was too high.

But now, some of those kids may have to go anyway.

If Andre Ethier is benched, he would be bait. If Andy LaRoche doesn’t start, he could be bait.

Of course, Schmidt could get healthy and none of that would matter so much.

If only he knew. If only anybody had a clue.

“That’s the thing about it,” he says. “Nobody knows.”

He underwent right shoulder surgery June 20, the seriousness of which he described in a simple sentence.

“We had to rework the whole thing,” he said.

By all accounts, he has worked hard on his rehabilitation, feeling fine this winter, showing up fit this spring, then working up to throwing 60 pitches off a mound at Dodgertown last week.

“I wanted my next work to be with live hitters; I was ready to go,” he says.

But then the shoulder began aching again, and fear set in.

“There’s just so much uncertainty,” he says. “When the arm hurts, you wonder, ‘Is it just spring training, or is it the shoulder?’ ”

He was shut down for a few days. He is starting to build back up, throwing off a flat surface for now, hoping to get back to the mound soon.

But he’s going to be careful. He’s 35, with velocity that began dropping before the injury, so he’s not taking chances.

He probably has one good comeback left in him. He doesn’t want to blow it.

“I don’t want to come back too soon, injure it again, then go through this whole thing again,” he says. “We’re trying to go slow.”

Yet the Dodgers, who open the season with a dozen games against clubs from their division, need to start fast.

Since giving Schmidt $47 million -- for which he has won one game -- General Manager Ned Colletti has felt the heat.

Until Schmidt returns, that heat will remain, on the boss and his team, whose lineup is too good to waste on a shaky starting staff.

I found Schmidt alone in the clubhouse Sunday afternoon.

He was there again, alone, Monday afternoon, looking at his watch and rubbing his shoulder.

Aren’t we all.

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Bill Plaschke can be reached at [email protected]. To read previous columns by Plaschke, go to latimes.com/plaschke.