Yao Probably Couldn’t Fix Knicks’ Problems

Now for the event New York has been waiting, the big fix, er, lottery!

At the first one in 1984, the Knicks, then, as now, in desperate straits, stuck in their thumb and pulled out the plum of the draft, Georgetown’s Patrick Ewing.

Ever since, the NBA has been rife with the inevitable conspiracy rumors, among them the famous “cold envelope theory,” which holds that Commissioner David Stern felt around for the Knicks’ refrigerated one.

The likelihood of pulling off something that smooth and keeping it secret was nil, but the Knicks seem to think Stern will somehow arrange it today too, dropping China’s 7-foot-5 Yao Ming in their lap.

Not that he isn’t amused by it all, but today, for the first time, Stern will let three press people witness the actual draw.

The New York media has been going wild about Yao’s arrival, even though the Knicks, who turned it up at the end when they should have been shutting it down, finished No. 23, ahead of six teams.

Now they have a 4.4% chance at the first pick and a 5% chance at the second, which might be high enough, since either the Chicago Bulls or Golden State Warriors would probably take Duke’s Jay (nee Jason) Williams.

This raises another question: What were the Knicks doing at the end of the season?

In a three-way tie for No. 23 in March, they closed 7-13 to the Cleveland Cavaliers’ 6-14 and the Houston Rockets’ 5-15.

Had the Knicks dropped those two places in the standings, their chances would have doubled to 9% for the first pick and 10% for the second.

Undeterred by probability, Scott Layden, heeding the ever-shrill demand placed on all Knick general managers to do something, flew to China to scout Yao personally.

When Yao journeyed to Chicago to work out, the Knicks got a private session beforehand. Layden, Coach Don Chaney, Allan Houston and 10 more Knick executives flew in, gave Yao a physical, put him through a drill and took him to dinner that night.

In contrast, Memphis’ Jerry West asked for a private workout, was turned down and did a slow burn.

Then Layden lobbied the league to scratch his former coach, Jeff Van Gundy, who was supposed to run Yao’s workout for the other teams. Layden said it was “just a matter that we didn’t feel it was appropriate at this time.”

Whatever that meant. Anyway, Van Gundy was replaced by P.J. Carlesimo.

Meanwhile, the New York papers ran reams of copy, detailing the Chinese government’s desire for Yao to play in a city with a large Chinese-American population.

Hey, doesn’t New York have a large Chinese population?

“Yao Ming doesn’t belong to any team,” said Shanghai Shark General Manager Lin Yao Min. “He belongs to the world.”

Of course, no one talked to anyone in the Chinese government, just some basketball functionaries. The government may well conclude, as Stern has, that as long as Yao plays in the NBA--and gets on TV--it will work for China.

Nor does Stern seem to be putting any fix in, noting that Arvydas Sabonis, a bigger international star than Yao, did fine in Portland, which had no Little Vilnius.

General suspicions to the contrary, Stern knows it’s the medium--TV--that’s all-important now, rather than any market, however huge and close to home.

He actually rigged things against Pat Riley’s Knicks, enacting anti-thug rules, which had the effect of protecting the telegenic Michael Jordan from Riley’s “game of force.”

Nor does Stern relax rules for the Knicks. In 1997, when they led Miami, 3-2, in the second round, he rocked them with a welter of suspensions, one for Ewing for wandering a few feet off the bench during a fight, after which the Heat won.

Besides, you can get Chinese food in any hamlet in America.

Even if Stern wanted to put Yao in New York or Golden State, he’d face the wrath of the other teams, like West’s Grizzlies, who have guards and forwards, but no center, and still seem Yao’s likeliest destination.

“I definitely think there’s a couple of markets they’d like for him to go to,” West said. “There’s no question. But for a team in this league, if you feel like he’s the best player then draft him....

“I don’t think teams should be blackmailed.... If he’s available, and that’s who we wanted to draft, we would draft him.”

West, asked in Chicago to compare Yao to his other greats, like Shaquille O’Neal and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, noted bluntly, “He’s not any of those guys.”

On the other hand, Yao is 7-5, and the best center in the draft.

There’s a wide spectrum of opinions, from “looks like the real deal” to “a freak of nature who doesn’t react to game situations.”

Unfortunately, it’s impossible to reproduce NBA conditions before the draft, and they didn’t even run a scrimmage in Chicago. Yao shot well from the outside, which means little. Guards can do that. If a big man can’t hold his ground in the lane (see: Shawn Bradley), what’s the point of being big?

“Yao will be better than Shaquille O’Neal,” declared Lin. “Especially now in the free throw. If they bet steak for free throws, Shaquille will owe Ming every time.”

That shows how much they know about what they’re getting into.

Yao is a huge young man with a nice touch, but he isn’t used to the faster, rougher NBA game. Everyone was hoping he’d be the next coming of Shaq, but he’s not. He’s a super-project who could hit big, or miss.

Whatever happens, it probably won’t be in New York, which will be a break for Yao, even if he has a few million fewer homies to hang with. Picture the treatment he’d get next December if he were averaging 20 minutes and eight points.

Besides, they don’t use envelopes anymore. Of course, Spike Lee probably had a box of Ping-Pong balls on ice Saturday.

Faces and Figures

Guess who’s coming to dinner: Dallas’ madcap owner, Mark Cuban, had been expected to try a trade for Yao, but it turns out the center he wants is the Clippers’ Michael Olowokandi. “I don’t think Yao Ming is as good as Shawn Bradley right now,” Cuban said, ending speculation about a Michael Finley-Raef LaFrentz offer. “Finley for Yao Ming is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard.” ... Cuban also told the Fort Worth Star Telegram he would talk to Bill Duffy, Olowokandi’s agent. Said assistant coach Donnie Nelson of Olowokandi: “That’s certainly a center with a very solid body. He’ll give us another international guy so he’ll fit right in.” ... Olowokandi is, of course, only a restricted free agent, and the Mavericks are over the cap, meaning the Clippers would have to OK a sign-and-trade, which has no shot. On the other hand, if my favorite Clipper owner thinks he’s going to escape at $6 million a year, as he reportedly told a season-ticket holder, he’d better think again. More Europeans on the horizon: Three or four are expected to be drafted in the first round, and the San Antonio Spurs hope to sign Emanuel Ginobli, a 6-foot-5 Argentine guard playing in Italy. Ginobli, who was just chosen most valuable player of the European Final Four, was San Antonio’s second-round pick in 1999. The Pistons hope to sign Mehmet Okur, a 6-11 Turk they selected in the 2001 second round. Team President Joe Dumars says if Okur were in this draft, he’d be the second- or third-best power forward.

Oops: Deputy Commissioner Russ Granik admitted what everyone knew, telling ESPN the league would be “very uncomfortable” with a final series in lame-duck Charlotte. This, of course, resulted in paranoids- delight reviews of every call against the Hornets, such as Baron Davis’ three-point shot that was waved off at the end of Game 4 in Orlando (the Hornets won in overtime), and Jamaal Magloire’s suspension for Game 1 against the New Jersey Nets (the Hornets lost.) Coach Paul Silas, in a classy response: “The way I feel about it is this: Blaming referees is for losers. Anytime you use referees as an excuse, you’re a loser.”

The rebuilding continues: The Bulls fired longtime PA announcer Ray Clay, known for his bombastic (“A-A-A-N-D NOW ... FROM NORTH CAR-O-LINA”) Michael Jordan introduction. A spokesman said they wanted to go in “a different direction.” Clay said he was fired for telling the press he was told to give a downbeat intro when Jordan returned last season as a Wizard.... The Knicks’ Latrell Sprewell, on a length-of-the-court pass the Nets’ Jason Kidd rolled to Lucious Harris for a layup against them this season: “Jason even bowled a pass to a guy. He put a curve on it, right to the guy. I’m looking at guys, like, ‘Did you see that?’”

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Playing the Percentages

Teams entered in the NBA draft lottery, which will determine the order of selection for the first 13 picks, listed in order of overall record (worst record first) and chances out of 1,000 in the lottery:

*--* Team Record Chances First pick Second pick Third pick Golden State 21-61 225 22.50% 20.30% 17.63% Chicago 21-61 225 22.50% 20.30% 17.63% Memphis* 23-59 157 15.70% 15.80% 15.66% Denver 27-55 120 12.00% 12.68% 13.39% Houston 28-54 89 8.90% 9.75% 10.78% Cleveland 29-53 64 6.40% 7.20% 8.23% New York 30-52 44 4.40% 5.05% 5.91%% Atlanta** 33-49 29 2.90% 3.37% 4.02% Phoenix 36-46 15 1.50% 1.77% 2.14% Miami 36-46 14 1.40% 1.65% 2.00% Washington 37-45 7 0.70% 0.83% 1.01% Clippers 39-43 6 0.60% 0.71% 0.87% Milwaukee 41-41 5 0.50% 0.59% 0.73%

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*--Pick may be conveyed to Detroit or to Atlanta via Detroit, Philadelphia and Houston.

**--Pick may be conveyed to Clippers. Source: NBA