Students See Bright Future and Prepare for It

Velia Soto thinks she has the world at her feet. She is in college now, but after she accumulates a wall full of degrees she will shift into high gear on a career path that she figures will eventually lead to public office and, if all goes right, and why shouldn’t it, taking over the state Department of Education.

Marriage? Kids? Yes, she wants them, but on her schedule, no one else’s.

Unlike past generations of Latinos who have struggled to scratch out their livings at hardscrabble jobs in the fields or behind a vacuum in an office tower, Soto is brimming with optimism and confidence. She isn’t alone.

Fueled by their growing political and economic might, as well as the cultural validation attending the mega-success of singers such as Ricky Martin and athletes such as Oscar de La Hoya, young Latinos like Soto see few obstacles to reaching their dreams.

But is it safe to assume the opportunities Latinos see today will still be here in five or 10 years? Will the county’s economy be able to absorb a Latino population that is expected to increase 142% over the next 40 years as Latinos become the largest ethnic group in Ventura County?

It depends on who’s answering the question.

At first glance, economic conditions look good for the foreseeable future. Since emerging from the statewide recession earlier this decade, Ventura County has blossomed into a dynamic and diverse economy now in its seventh year of expansion.

Unemployment remains at near-historic lows. Job creation has been solid, increasing 5% between 1990 and 1997. Home sales continue to be brisk, illustrating strong consumer confidence and affluence. Average annual income is on the rise and the county’s economic base is expanding to include new growth industries such as software development and video production.

Most economists expect the local economy to continue growing through the next decade, but at a more modest pace.

Analysts and community leaders agree that this future holds great promise for Latinos. However, there is debate over whether enough is being done to prepare them to meet the needs of a more demanding and diverse economy that is no longer centered on agriculture.

“The problem is that we’ve gone from bad times to good times pretty quickly and we’re still trying to solidify a foundation that we can build on,” Supervisor Frank Schillo said.

“Because we’re playing catch-up, I don’t think there’s too many people out there thinking five or 10 years ahead, which is something we should be doing if we want this county to maintain the kind of success we’ve been having.”

One thing is already clear, Latinos have broken free of the stereotypes that have long dogged them. They can no longer be identified simply as gloved farm workers. Although there are still more than 10,000 Latino farm workers in the county, most Latinos have moved into other job categories and many have reached the middle class.

Most middle-class Latino households, the study found, have two or more wage earners, however. They are largely employed in blue-collar jobs. But younger Latinos are taking a more prominent place in the white-collar work force and are increasingly going into business for themselves.

The number of Latino-owned businesses in the county more than doubled to about 10,000 between 1992 and 1997.

All this has fed a growing optimism among young Latinos like Soto.

“Aspiration and hope have so much to do with future success, and Latinos have never been more hopeful,” said Pepperdine researcher Gregory Rodriguez. “What we need to do is find a way to capitalize on those aspirations and make that hope real.”

There are worrisome trends, however. According to a 1998 report prepared by the county, local job creation will not keep pace with population increases over the next decade.

The report, titled “Historical Industry Trends and Job Creation Potential in Ventura County,” estimates that by 2006 the eligible work force will have grown to 443,000, up from 390,000 today.

To keep unemployment at 7%, the report said, the economy must create 23,000 more jobs than the 44,000 the report predicts.

Future jobs, experts predict, will be clustered in several sectors, including services, government and education, computer programming and high-technology manufacturing.

More than 25,000 will be in the vaguely defined service sector, which includes everything from lawyers to valets.

The wholesale trade sector is also expected to increase substantially over the next decade, creating 6,300 new jobs, mostly in computer and electronic wholesaling, agriculture and automotive supplies.

Retail trade is expected to add another 5,100 jobs, most in the restaurant industry. Other retail industries creating opportunities in the next century are department and grocery store chains, and car dealerships.

Although banks are expected to begin scaling back on employees, new jobs will also be available in the financial industry.

Employment in government will also continue to increase through 2006, the report said, by about 3,100 jobs. Two-thirds of those jobs will be in education.

Most of these new jobs will require a greater degree of specialized training and education, the report says.

“The challenge is that we’re moving into an age that requires all of us to have greater expertise,” said Harry Pachon, director of the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute, a Riverside-based research group. “The question then becomes how do we as a whole prepare and get that expertise.”

As an example, being a cook is no longer about deft spatula skills and following recipes.

According to the 1999 occupational report prepared by the county’s Workforce Development Division, restaurant employers now require cooks to have computer skills such as word processing and familiarity with specialized retail software.

“It’s like that across the board,” said Jack Kyser, chief economist for the Greater Los Angeles Economic Development Corp. “It’s getting to a point where every profession is requiring employees to be computer literate, and that requires training.”

Whether enough is being done now to provide that training for Latinos is a matter of debate.

Hank Lacayo, board member and president-elect of El Concilio del Condado de Ventura, is optimistic about the future, but said he was unsure whether its potential would be fully realized.

Some worry that because Latinos’ access to education and specialized training is not as great as other ethnic groups, they may not be able to take advantage of the opportunities and may be stuck in jobs with low- and medium-paying service employers such as restaurants and construction.

“If that happens, there’s going to be a very ugly income distribution,” said Jamshid Damooei, an economics professor at Cal Lutheran University in Thousand Oaks.

“That’s troubling because what we’re talking about is a county that’s going to be stratified economically, politically and socially, which in the long and short term is a tremendous detriment.”

“I see little pieces here and there, but not enough to say we’re doing all we can,” Lacayo said. “Education is the key, but there aren’t enough options. . . . Where does a kid go when that kid doesn’t go to college? Unfortunately, Latinos are put in that position much too often.”

There are just three junior colleges in the county and two four-year colleges. There are a handful of vocational training centers and a number of county and state-sponsored job training programs, but with special restrictions.

However, the opening of the Cal State Channel Islands University could become a gateway for local Latinos to get the education they need to land better jobs.

“It’s a tremendous benefit,” Supervisor Schillo said. “What this county and the economy have needed is a four-year university. . . . That’s going to bring in the businesses we want and provide residents with easy access to the kind of training they’ll need to find jobs at those companies.”

Although the Ventura County economy has been racking up impressive gains over the past several years, there are some hurdles that Latinos and others will continue to face, the most pressing being housing.

Over the last several years, the county’s real estate market has been frenzied, with prices steadily climbing.

In June the median home price posted a record of $244,000. Today residents must have a median income of about $53,000 just to purchase a home.

“Housing and affordability are going to be serious problems in Ventura County and Southern California,” said Kyser. “It’s something we need to start thinking about strategically because it plays into the area’s overall economic stability.”

Fueling those price increases has been strong demand, which the current supply cannot meet. With just a handful of projects coming on line over the next several years and the adoption of tougher growth-control measures, prices may not return to an affordable level for some time. According to the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project, the median home price will increase 28% by 2005 to about $302,000.

Kyser said rising home prices and tight housing stocks could lead some companies to leave the area because they have to pay workers more to match the county’s cost of living.

It could also force lower-income residents to leave the area for places such as Riverside and San Bernardino counties where homes are considerably less expensive.

“The question is, how do you integrate into an economy that is changing so dramatically,” said Philip Otis, a professor of Latino history at Mount St. Mary’s College in Los Angeles, who has studied the Southern California Latino population. “For Latinos that isn’t an easy question because they’ve been shut out for so long; efforts to really bring them into the fold have been slow and small.”

Soto knows the future isn’t guaranteed. She knows Latinos don’t have an easy road and never have. But she also believes in a new day. She isn’t intimidated, and that confidence, born of struggle and experience, may be her best ally.

“That’s life, isn’t it,” she said, shrugging. “There’s so much out there. And the way we see it is that we’re going to just flourish.”