Low Valley Turnout for Council Race Raises Questions

Despite complaints of being underserved and underrepresented at City Hall, San Fernando Valley voters have passed on an opportunity to send a “local” downtown by staying away from the polls, thereby allowing Westside voters to determine the outcome of the 11th District council race.

Cindy Miscikowski, a Brentwood resident, defeated Georgia Mercer of Tarzana on Tuesday in the race to replace retiring Councilman Marvin Braude.

Although the election results are open to various interpretations, the relative apathy of Valley voters is striking in light of Mercer’s all-out effort to tap into their discontent.

Such voter malaise raises the question of whether the Valley’s political will to demand greater clout or secede has been overstated.

“It was obviously not strong enough to be the one compelling issue to make people come out,” Mercer campaign manager Samantha Stevens said.

Others say the lower Valley turnout is a symptom of how disconnected voters here feel or stemmed from a widely circulated Mercer statement that homeowner associations have too much power.

Miscikowski refused to offer a divided message to the district, which she views as having common interests and concerns.

Instead, she spoke on her knowledge of Valley issues gleaned during her 22 years as an aide to Braude. “I neutralized to some degree the sense that I was a foreigner,” she said. An analysis of semiofficial precinct results show Mercer won in all Valley areas of the district--Encino, Tarzana, Van Nuys, Woodland Hills and parts of Sherman Oaks. And the Valley has slightly more voters than the Westside.

But the Valley turnout, which was 1.57% lower than the Westside, kept Mercer in second place.

In the primary, the disparity in turnout was about 0.5% in favor of the Westside, with Mercer outpolling Miscikowski by 900 votes.

The race last week was decided by less than a 1% margin, or about 1,400 votes.

In percentages, Mercer took the Valley by a 56%-42% margin. Miscikowski won the Westside by a wide 60%-38% margin. Neither total includes absentee votes.

Absentee ballots cast the day of the election, plus two outstanding precincts, remain uncounted, but they are not expected to change the outcome.

In the nonpartisan race between two Democrats, Miscikowski believes Republican votes were key to her victory, a factor that cannot be analyzed until further data is made available.

Sherman Oaks political consultant Jill Barad believes Miscikowski is right.

“Republicans needed someplace to go,” Barad said. “When [former candidate] Mark Isler endorsed Cindy, I thought that was significant.”

Miscikowski also mined Pacific Palisades effectively. Considered the area of the district where voters are most content with their lot, Palisades voters gave Miscikowski 67% of their vote.

In raw numbers, Miscikowski beat Mercer in the Palisades by 969 votes, a good chunk of her roughly 1,400 margin.

While Mercer emphasized her Valley roots in campaign mailers, phone banks and face-to-face contact with voters, Miscikowski refused to offer a divided message to the district because she says the issues and concerns are similar on both sides of the Santa Monica Mountains.

Both she and Mercer opposed Valley secession, but favor legislation to take decision-making power on secession out of the hands of the City Council.

Still, the Mercer camp was hoping Valley sentiments about being underserved would give her the “bump” she needed to overcome Miscikowski’s Westside advantage.

Feedback from phone banks, precinct walkers and Mercer’s conversations with voters confirmed it was a hot topic.

So why did it not translate into a big Valley blowout for Mercer?

“What you learned is secession is a big issue, but that it doesn’t translate into someone running for office,” said former Rep. Bobbi Fiedler, a Miscikowski supporter. “[Mercer] wasn’t a candidate who excited people enough to come out and vote for her.”

Homeowner and secession movement leader Richard Close said Mercer turned off potential Valley backers with a statement that homeowner associations have too much power in the city.

That runs counter to homeowners’ view that unless they are vigilant, no one will look out for them, Close said.

“Once she attacked homeowners she was attacking the people she needed to go to the polls,” Close said.

Attorney David Fleming, Mayor Richard Riordan’s point man on charter reform, agrees with Fiedler that the depressed Valley turnout does not indicate a lack of support for Valley independence.

Just the opposite.

The lower turnout means Valley voters’ sense of disenfranchisement is even worse than has been stated by its leaders, Fleming said.