Building Blocs

When the votes started trickling in last November, and the enormity of it all became clear, those who had long labored in the Latino community’s political fields could only grow giddy with joy. For the first time in 20 years, there was little whining about the paltry turnout of Latino voters--this time, things had been different, thank God and Gov. Pete Wilson, not necessarily in that order.

California had five Latinos in Congress, four in the state Senate and 14 in the Assembly, all but one Democrats. It would soon have one--Fresno’s Cruz Bustamante--as the first Latino Speaker of the Assembly--and another, Los Angeles’ Antonio Villaraigosa, as the chamber’s Democratic floor leader.

It had Xavier Becerra, also of Los Angeles, on the House’s most powerful committee, Ways and Means, and as head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

As amazing as all that was the reach of victory. Latinos picked up their first Assembly seat in the San Fernando Valley and congressional seat in Orange County. Inland Empire voters elected two Latinos to the Assembly: a Democrat and a Republican. Farther north, Latinas were elected to Assembly seats in the East Bay and in Sacramento.

The results underscored the future power of a massive voting bloc that, with a few exceptions, has traditionally been underappreciated by the state’s political establishment. November’s returns also provide a road map for what Latino leaders expect to be a future wave of successes in Los Angeles and throughout California.

No longer are Latino politicians representing only the communities that bred and supported them, such as East Los Angeles.

“We are really seeing a suburbanization of the Latino vote, a dispersal and suburbanization of Latino influence,” said Harry Pachon, president of the Tomas Rivera Political Institute at Claremont College.

The exact extent of the vote last November remains unclear because the state does not track the ethnic background of voters. But almost everyone agrees that Latino turnout shattered records.

The Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project, which has charted Latino voting trends, estimates that 75% of registered Latinos voted in the city of Los Angeles and 70% voted in the state. That is dramatically higher than the overall turnout, which California officials estimate at a paltry 53.5% citywide and 65.5% statewide.

The Los Angeles Times Exit Poll showed Latinos comprising an ever larger proportion of the overall electorate. Statewide, Latinos were 10% of the electorate in November, up from 8% four years earlier. “There are some inroads being made,” said Susan Pinkus, acting director of the Times Poll.

But polls also illustrates the reason that Latinos have, until now, been taken for granted by politicians. While they compose 32% of the city’s population, Latinos amount to only 14% of registered voters, according to a January Times Poll. The same poll found that Latinos are 12% of those likely to cast ballots in April’s mayoral election.

The first rationale for the expanding turnout by Latinos is the easy one: Fear.

The two most recent state elections have been dominated by initiatives whose impact frightened Latinos. Proposition 187, while targeted at illegal immigrants, raised fears among other Latinos of discrimination, particularly against children. And Proposition 209 curtailed affirmative action programs that have helped some Latinos enter state universities and gain state jobs. Welfare reform also threatened non-citizen Latinos.

“It’s no longer if you become a citizen you can vote,” said Claremont’s Pachon. “Now it’s if you don’t become a citizen and you have a devastating injury, you’ll not get aid.”

A study by the Tomas Rivera Political Institute showed that 25% to 35% of November’s Latino voters were either newly naturalized citizens or young voters, presumably motivated by the recent initiatives and the rhetoric emanating from Wilson and others.

“Pedro Wilson created more [Latino] Democrats than any Democratic official,” Pachon said.

But Antonio Gonzalez, president of the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project, points out that those developments only quickened Latinos’ pace of involvement. Figures gathered by his organization show that Latino registration actually began to take off in 1984, and by 1988 Latinos were increasingly winning elections.

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Latino leaders are optimistic about picking up more seats, particularly in areas where concentrations of Latino voters give them power in Democratic primaries.

Several analysts project broad and growing strength in the San Fernando Valley, the Harbor area, Long Beach, Oxnard, Ventura and the Inland Empire.

Latinos also are looking forward--but not longingly--to future battles with African Americans for seats in the increasingly Latino South-Central Los Angeles.

“It could turn out to be a very ugly situation or a useful exercise in coalition building that the rest of the nation can emulate,” said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Assn. of Latino Elected Officials, whose California organization includes more than 800 officials. “That is the challenge.”

Looking toward particular districts, Latinos will target the congressional seats held by U.S. Reps. Howard Berman and George Brown--when both men decide to retire. Latino residents--and voters--are increasing their holds in both districts.

And there is always the race for Los Angeles mayor. Analysts unanimously believe that the April mayoral election will be the last without a powerful Latino candidate.

“I don’t think you’ll ever see that again, where two white men are running,” said U.S. Rep. Becerra, who chuckled “next question?” when asked if he might be in the running.

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The more serious concern among Latino politicians and activists is whether the gains of recent years will continue, particularly absent emotional initiatives such as Props. 187 and 209.

“The challenge that Latino leadership has is can we maintain the momentum?” asked Vargas of the association of elected Latino officials. “Naturalization is slowing down . . . Do we have staying power? The jury is still out.”

Claremont’s Pachon noted that the number of ballots cast in some overwhelmingly Latino districts in eastern Los Angeles county had declined from 1992, in seeming defiance of the upward tick in Latino voting.

“If there is no big mobilizing event in ‘98, for example, if the governor’s race is not exciting, that’s a concern,” he said.

Some, however, are optimistic that California is on track to fully integrate its political establishment.

“I was born in this country. I’m an American,” said Becerra. “I also happen to have a rich heritage that offers me a great deal. . . . I think folks are more interested in what I--black, brown, white--can do.”

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Ballot Victories

Latino elected officials by state.

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1984 1990 1994 Texas 1,427 1,920 2,215 California 460 572 796 New Mexico 556 687 716 Arizona 241 272 341 Colorado 175 192 201

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California Latino voter registration:

1984: 953,000

1988: 1,049,000

1992: 1,384,000

1996: 2,040,000*

Source: National Assn. of Latino Elected Officials.

* Source is Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project.