Mild Recession Predicted: A slowdown in consumer...

Mild Recession Predicted: A slowdown in consumer spending will tip the U.S. economy into a mild recession this year, but recovery will be swift, a leading California economist predicted. In a speech in San Francisco, Jerry Jordan, chief economist for First Interstate Bank, said he expects the economy to turn down in April and pick up in October. Consumers will cut back purchases of new cars, boats and other luxury items in the second and third quarters, Jordan said, but stronger exports will keep the manufacturing sector from being pulled down by the drop in consumer spending. Near the end of the summer, interest rates will begin to come down as the Federal Reserve Board eases its restrictions on the money supply, he said, and that will relieve some of the pressure on consumers’ wallets and push the economy up.