State GOP Betting on 1986 as Its Year to Gain Senate Seats

SACRAMENTO — Republican leaders believe that 1986 offers them the best chance in years to make significant gains in the state Senate, where 16 of the 20 seats at stake are held by Democrats.

With two of those seats opening up because of retirements and four Democratic incumbents facing challenges from locally elected GOP officials, Republicans say they should come up with at least two winners. At the same time, the four Republican seats at risk in the elections are held by strong GOP incumbents.

As the election campaign season gets under way, 20 of the Senate’s 40 seats are at stake as are all 80 Assembly seats. In addition, voters will cast ballots for governor, other statewide officers, ballot propositions, the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives and on hundreds of local issues throughout the state.

Impact of Bird

Senate Republican leaders say they believe issues, particularly the confirmation election of controversial California Chief Justice Rose Elizabeth Bird, are working in their favor. These GOP leaders say their public opposition to Bird, in contrast to Democrats’ silence or support of her, puts them on the same side of most voters.

GOP strategists, who also point to increasing voter identification with the Republican Party, believe that they have the strongest field of GOP challengers in years.

All that makes Republicans bullish as they cast an eye toward 1991, when legislative and congressional district lines will be redrawn to reflect the 1990 Census. The party in power traditionally reapportions the districts to suit its own best interests.

“We hope to gain two or three seats. If we get lucky, if the issues go right for us, we could gain five,” said Sen. John Seymour (R-Anaheim), chairman of the Senate Republican caucus.

Democrats indicate that they are willing to settle for what they have--a 26-14 advantage in the Senate, which leaves them only one vote short of a two-thirds majority.

“I would say maintenance of the status quo is a tremendous victory for us,” said Senate Majority Leader Barry Keene (D-Benicia).

Senate President Pro Tem David A. Roberti (D-Los Angeles), when asked what a successful election year for him would be, answered: “26-14 would be very nice.”

With one more seat, Democrats would have the two-thirds majority needed to override gubernatorial vetoes, pass spending and tax bills and enact urgency legislation. Currently, they must seek Republican help to accomplish such tasks.

But even without the two-thirds majority, the sheer number of Democrats in the Senate poses a political problem for Gov. George Deukmejian, a Republican.

Chair 20 of 22 Committees

Democrats now hold chairmanships of 20 of the 22 standing committees, allowing them broad control over all legislation that goes into or comes out of the Senate and giving them a free hand in such matters as the confirmation of Deukmejian appointees.

Faced with his own reelection, Deukmejian nevertheless plans to help GOP legislative candidates with fund raising and provide other campaign assistance. “I’m going to be making a large number of appearances on behalf of Republican candidates,” the governor said in San Diego last week.

Republican legislators say they think the confirmation election of the chief justice will help GOP candidates in many parts of the state. Although the court election officially is nonpartisan, Bird is a Democrat and was appointed by former Democratic Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr.

Public opinion polls show her to be in disfavor with voters, and Republican campaign tacticians believe that any Democratic candidate who remains silent on the issue or supports her will be hurt politically. “We think it’s going to be a tremendous issue for us,” said Senate Republican Leader James W. Nielsen of Woodland.

Another development that has Republicans smiling was a public opinion survey last year by pollster Mervin D. Field showing that, for the first time in recent history, as many voters identify with the Republican Party as they do the Democratic Party. GOP leaders say the survey results are supported by improved Republican voter registration in key legislative districts around the state.

Toxic Cleanup Record

Democrats, on the other hand, contend that a major issue working against Republicans is Deukmejian’s record on toxic waste cleanup. They say the governor’s toxics program is ineffective, poorly organized and a major embarrassment to Republicans.

Roberti delights in pointing out that the toxics issue plays best in the five districts where Republicans are expected to run their strongest races. The districts are the home of some of the state’s worst toxic waste dump sites, ranging from Bakersfield and Santa Barbara in the south, up to Sacramento, Santa Clara County and a five-county coastal district in the north.

Party leaders say as much as $1 million will have to be raised for individual candidates running in the more competitive races. They predict the 1986 elections could be the most expensive ever.

Most of the liveliest campaigns will not develop until after the June 3 primary, when balloting will determine which candidates will carry their party’s banner in the Nov. 4 general election.

Hot Primary Fights

However, hot primary fights have developed in two of the five key districts that Republicans have targeted as their best opportunities to win seats from Democrats.

In Kern County’s 16th Senate District, two Bakersfield Democrats have entered the race to succeed veteran Democratic Sen. Walter W. Stiern, who is retiring. One is Jim Young, chancellor of the Kern Community College District, who has the backing of Democratic leaders in Sacramento. The other is George Albin, a neurosurgeon who has been active in local Democratic politics.

Running on the Republican side is Assemblyman Don Rogers of Bakersfield, who is considered by strategists in both parties to be the front-runner.

GOP Primary Fight

Farther north, in Santa Clara and Stanislaus counties, Republicans have a primary fight on their hands in the 12th District. The seat is held by freshman Sen. Dan McCorquodale (D-San Jose), but Republicans think they can defeat him because GOP voter registration is rising and Democratic registration is on the decline.

Moderate and conservative GOP senators in the Capitol have already chosen sides, giving the primary fight in the 12th District statewide overtones. One candidate, Bob Herriott, an airline pilot from Milpitas, is backed by state Sen. H. L. Richardson of Glendora and other conservative lawmakers. His opponent is Thomas Legan of San Jose, a Santa Clara County supervisor backed by Sen. Becky Morgan of Los Altos Hills and other Northern California Republicans.

In other races targeted by Republicans, the GOP has found elected local officials to run against incumbent Democrats. In one of the races, Sacramento County Supervisor Sandy Smoley will challenge Sen. Leroy Greene (D-Carmichael) in November in Sacramento County’s 6th District.

Challenge to Sen. Hart

In Southern California’s 18th District, which includes Santa Barbara County and parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, Sen. Gary K. Hart (D-Santa Barbara) faces a challenge in the fall by Santa Barbara County Supervisor DeWayne Holmdahl.

Democrats hold only a 48% to 39% edge in voter registration in Hart’s district, the thinnest margin of any Democratic seat in the Senate. Hart defeated Holmdahl previously in an Assembly race, but that was before Holmdahl was elected to the Board of Supervisors.

In the north coast’s 2nd District, Republican Solano County Supervisor Richard Brann has filed to run against Democratic Majority Leader Keene. Republicans think Keene may be vulnerable because of his outspoken support of Bird, but Democrats believe Brann’s challenge is designed to keep the Democratic leader off balance and divert his attention from other races.

Another important race is developing for the San Francisco Bay Area’s open 8th District seat, held for many years by retiring Democratic Sen. John F. Foran of San Francisco.

Veteran Democratic Assemblyman Louis J. Papan of Millbrae, a heavy favorite in the primary, is expected to be faced in November by San Francisco County Supervisor Quentin Kopp, an independent.

Republicans, who do not appear to have a chance in the heavily Democratic 8th District, are nonetheless pleased by Kopp’s challenge. They believe Democrats will have to invest a lot of money and effort to defeat Kopp, a widely known Bay Area political figure who gave up his Democratic registration in 1984 to campaign as an independent.

Possible Write-in Candidate

Because he is not aligned with a party, Kopp’s name will not appear as a candidate in the primary. He said this week that he will definitely run in November and may even campaign as a write-in candidate in either primary, or possibly both.

Democrats appear to regard three of the four Republican incumbents running for reelection too strong to challenge effectively, but they say GOP Leader Nielsen may be vulnerable in his eight-county Northern California district.

Democrats say they believe attorney and businessman Franklin S. Cibula, a Democrat from Redding, could pose a serious threat to Nielsen in the 4th District. The situation here could be the same as in Keene’s district, with the opposition trying to keep a party leader so busy that he cannot concentrate on other races. Nevertheless, Democrats maintain Nielsen could be vulnerable because 50% of the voters in his district are Democrats.

Next: A look at the Assembly.